Steem inflation: Checking the numbers after Q3/2026

TL;DR: For the first time in Steem's history, the daily STEEM production is steadily shrinking, instead of growing or staying flat.

0. Overview

The blockchain's expected inflation rate for the quarter was somewhere around 5.42%, and the observed rate was 5.62%. As with previous quarters, the elevation above the blockchain's base rate was almost certainly due to SBD conversions.

During the quarter, we expected to see 8.2 million new STEEM and 86K new SBDs. Instead, we saw 8.5 million new STEEM and an increase of 53K SBDS.

Daily STEEM production at this time was projected at about 91,663 in my July post and it's currently at 91,534. Meanwhile, the blockchain's haircut price dropped from $0.1353 on Jan 1 to $0.1197 in early April, $0.1047 after Q2, and $0.1041 today. After the end of proposal #117, the haircut price decline continued, but slowed.

1. Here's what would be expected for the next few months, based on current values (subject to change from known and unknown factors):

Date	Block #	Inflation Rate	Supply	New Steem Per Day	Haircut Supply	Haircut Steem Per Day	Lower Bound Supply	Lower Bound Steem Per Day
2026-10-16 16:13:51.683233	110500000	0.053600	623077928	91498	623077928	91498	560770135	82348
2026-10-25 08:33:51.683233	110750000	0.053500	623871951	91444	623871951	91444	561484756	82299
2026-11-03 00:53:51.683233	111000000	0.053400	624665500	91389	624665500	91389	562198950	82250
2026-11-11 17:13:51.683233	111250000	0.053300	625458571	91334	625458571	91334	562912714	82200
2026-11-20 09:33:51.683233	111500000	0.053200	626251160	91278	626251160	91278	563626044	82150
2026-11-29 01:53:51.683233	111750000	0.053100	627043262	91221	627043262	91221	564338936	82099
2026-12-07 18:13:51.683233	112000000	0.053000	627834872	91165	627834872	91165	565051385	82048
2026-12-16 10:33:51.683233	112250000	0.052900	628625987	91107	628625987	91107	565763388	81996
2026-12-25 02:53:51.683233	112500000	0.052800	629416602	91049	629416602	91049	566474942	81944

Last quarter, we were expecting a decline to 91,663. Today's actual value was 91,534. So, the daily production of new STEEM dropped slightly faster than anticipated.

During the next quarter, we'd expect the daily STEEM production to drop to 91,049. This represents a drop of 485 STEEM per day, or slightly more than ¹/₂%.

2. And here's what the full visualizations of expected new STEEM per day look like (also subject to change from known and unknown factors):

No surprises here. As we have previously anticipated, Steem has now entered a new period where - barring unanticipated changes - daily inflation will decline gently at first, and then with increasing speed until 2037. Here we see a projected decline of about 2,643 STEEM per day during the next year, 16,106 STEEM per day during the next four years, and 45,478 STEEM per day over the coming 8 years.

For the first time in Steem's history, the daily STEEM production is steadily shrinking, instead of growing or staying flat.

If the price of STEEM and the haircut price flip, this projected reduction may grow even larger. In my opinion, the best way to help that happen is to support post promotion, because burning SBDs tends to lower the haircut price.

3. Here's a forward looking visual with projections for daily new STEEM, expected virtual supply, and the blockchain inflation rate with upper and lower values, depending upon the price of STEEM in comparison to the haircut ratio.

Same data as above. Different view.

This adds in the blockchain's annual inflation rate and virtual supply projections. Additionally, new STEEM per day and virtual supplies are shown with upper boundaries and lower boundaries, based on the ratio of the STEEM price and the haircut price.

4. Now, let's take a look backwards

At this point, I guess I'm fully migrated from SteemDB.io to Google Sheets. Here is an overview of STEEM and SBD supply, updated daily and recorded in Google Sheets for this information.

4.1 Observed supplies and new STEEM per day

The right-hand visual shows that the new STEEM per day declined from 92,936 to 91,552 from November until now. It was 92,080 at the end of Q2. This represents a decline of 0.57% in daily STEEM production during the quarter.

The left-hand visual shows that STEEM supplies grew gently, more or less as expected. We also see that SBD supply growth has resumed after the end of proposal #117.

4.2 And here are details of observed vs. expected inflation before, during, and after proposal #117

The large swings are the inflation spikes from SBD conversions during the course of proposal #117. The SBD conversion activity increased heavily during proposal 117 and it settled back down again after the proposal ended.

4.3 Here's the SBD conversion activity since the start of the year.

The orange shading on top is when the conversions are initiated, and the blue shading on the bottom is when it completes, so the bottom spikes happen 3.5 days after the top ones.

Also worth noting is that the SBD value, in terms of STEEM, is nearly unchanged from Q2 (9.55 to 9.61).

As above, the end of proposal #117 is quite clear in the visualization.

5. New for this report: How long does it take to reduce 1% of daily production?

I posted recently about A different way of looking at Steem inflation, where I looked at the length of time that it takes for daily STEEM production to decline by 5%. Since that time, I updated the Google Sheets visualization to project the number of days required for a decline of 1%. It's at the very bottom of the page, in the red.

Bottom line, daily production is currently declining at a rate of about 142 days per one-percent reduction. At the end of the year, that is projected at 135 days, and by the end of next year it's projected at less than 100 days per one-percent reduction. When Steem enters its next phase in 2037, that pace will have been sliced to just 35 days.

6. Cautionary note (repeated from previous posts)

It's important to remember that these projections can all change, depending upon known and unknown factors. Known factors:

1. Burning STEEM and/or SBD can reduce inflation
2. If the STEEM price goes above the SBD print threshold, that will reduce inflation
3. Witnesses can decide to start paying interest on SBDs, which could increase or decrease inflation - depending on the price of STEEM relative to the haircut threshold and on how/if interest payments influence SBD conversion behavior.
4. If the STEEM price goes above the SBD print threshold, additional price movements can either increase or decrease inflation - depending upon direction of change.
5. Missed blocks by witnesses can reduce inflation
6. Witnesses can change any settings they choose in a hard fork, which could have any conceivable result.
7. SBD conversions increase inflation when the price of STEEM is below the haircut threshold.
8. There may be mistakes in these reports or other factors that I'm presently forgetting or not yet aware of.

Disclaimer

This is not intended as investment advice!

Thank you for your time and attention!!!